Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.419798 0.489072 0.563994 0.650776 0.748245 0.854052 0.977306
2025-04-13 0.304046 0.390223 0.490693 0.615484 0.765256 0.938125 1.151566
2025-04-20 0.234968 0.331110 0.451471 0.610895 0.813936 1.061165 1.381923
2025-04-27 0.178268 0.276856 0.409591 0.596986 0.849746 1.173443 1.613081
2025-05-04 0.138935 0.238126 0.381696 0.597291 0.904250 1.316066 1.899015
2025-05-11 0.107372 0.203940 0.354438 0.594725 0.955242 1.460723 2.204381
2025-05-18 0.077005 0.164204 0.311633 0.562975 0.961271 1.545458 2.438817
2025-05-25 0.053371 0.129215 0.269129 0.524462 0.952077 1.607861 2.649167
2025-06-01 0.039483 0.108207 0.245951 0.513615 0.984727 1.736179 2.968988
2025-06-08 0.028766 0.089967 0.223654 0.500385 1.011849 1.859187 3.293124
2025-06-15 0.022815 0.080519 0.216611 0.514171 1.087376 2.067470 3.768932
2025-06-22 0.015747 0.064851 0.192205 0.489637 1.091232 2.158200 4.065336
2025-06-29 0.011103 0.053813 0.175848 0.480033 1.124917 2.309012 4.484074
2025-07-06 0.007519 0.043718 0.158514 0.464741 1.145786 2.440413 4.883507
2025-07-13 0.005550 0.038122 0.151347 0.471409 1.212271 2.661371 5.456599
2025-07-20 0.003881 0.032233 0.141196 0.468775 1.259274 2.851398 5.991657
2025-07-27 0.002825 0.028229 0.135453 0.476327 1.329944 3.093922 6.641092
2025-08-03 0.001999 0.024440 0.128895 0.480356 1.393585 3.329067 7.295240
2025-08-10 0.001197 0.019245 0.114535 0.458707 1.394304 3.438571 7.723122
2025-08-17 0.000651 0.014581 0.099364 0.430142 1.373540 3.501672 8.067230
2025-08-24 0.000398 0.012052 0.092005 0.424194 1.408592 3.685616 8.660092
2025-08-31 0.000230 0.009814 0.084495 0.415582 1.435443 3.854324 9.234537
2025-09-07 0.000158 0.008878 0.083453 0.429734 1.525767 4.170890 10.127621